Adverse development in commercial auto liability has been remarkably persistent in recent years. Carried loss reserves in this line for the US P&C industry have been consistently inadequate for several years as observed in Schedule P Part 2.
For the industry in total, carried ultimates have developed upwards consistently each year. Should we expect this upward development to continue? In other words, are current loss reserves adequate to cover future loss obligations or will continued reserve strengthening be necessary?
In the attached PDF, I have listed a few potential reasons for the historical development observed in commercial auto. What are your thoughts?